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What is Connor McDavid Worth?

Over the course of this season I’ve seen a few articles written about what Connor McDavid’s next contract will look like and many people have also expressed their view on how much McDavid should be paid. Of course many observers simply state that he is (or soon will be) the best player in the game so whatever he wants is fine. If he wants to get paid the maximum (20% of the cap or $14.6 million/year at the moment) then that’s what the Oilers should pay. If he’s willing to take $9.7 million/year then pay that and if they want to make the deal $97 million over 8 years ($12.125 million/year), why not? Now while we’re sympathetic to that logic at MPS, we just can’t condone this kind of behaviour…

The MoneyPuck Perspective

It turns out that while many people in Edmonton might worship McDavid (McJesus?) as a deity, he is in fact a hockey player and so we can value him just like anyone else (if you haven’t read any of our previous articles you can click here to understand how this works because we won’t be rehashing it all in this post). Now doing this is of course a blend of art and science as you have to forecast his future ice time, performance and the NHL’s salary cap but there is still definitely a reasonable range for his value and levels that just don’t make sense.

The Range

If you simply take Connor McDavid’s performance career to date and project that he will continue to play this way for the next 8 years then his value to the Oilers is $10 million/season. In our opinion this is the low end of the range. Connor will likely get better over time (he’s only 20!) and this analysis also ignores his positive influence on the players around him.

Now to make the forecast a little more reasonable we can start to increase his performance during the forecast. For this we used Crosby’s scoring rates during his 20’s as a ceiling for how high to go. After doing this we can justify paying McDavid as much as $11 million/year.

Lastly, if we attribute the increase in value that Patrick Maroon has shown this year to McDavid (hopefully this needs no explanation) we can add even more to his value. How much? Well in Maroon’s case it’s about $0.5 million/season. Which means that on the high end we would value Connor McDavid at $11.5 million/season.

What will he get?

So after doing all the analyses and running a couple scenarios it is MoneyPuck’s opinion that Connor McDavid will be worth ~$11 million/year on his next contract . We’d look the other way at $11.5 million and probably even $12 million but if he’s signed for $14 million that would be a big overpay by the Oilers. All that said, if we had to guess we would say that he will sign for right around $12 million/year (probably $97 million over 8 years). Teams tend to overpay their stars (and this would be a small overpay) and there is precedent for contracts that match jersey numbers.

Let us know your thoughts! Do you agree with our prediction? What other metrics do you think should be considered?

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What is Connor McDavid Worth?

8 thoughts on “What is Connor McDavid Worth?

  • September 26, 2017 at 8:58 pm
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