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Trouba Signs with Jets – A Bargain

Contract Details:

After much negotiation, Jets sign Trouba for 2 more years, paying $2.5 million this season and $3.5 million next season. In the 2015-16 regular season, Trouba scored 6 goals and had 15 assists. After running his stats through the MoneyPuck salary calculator, this deal looks like a win for the Jets.

Analysis at first glance:

We have analyzed this contract by using Trouba’s last 3 years’ performance as a baseline forecast for the duration of his contract (i.e. we assumed that Trouba simply plays exactly the same way and exactly the same minutes as he has for the past 3 years). Below shows a screenshot from the salary calculator using this performance forecast (for more details on this check out our first blog post detailing our methodology).

Trouba1

Not surprisingly, the result of this forecast is a salary amount that is higher than what Trouba ultimately signed for. We did expect this given Trouba did sign for less than his market value and many are speculating this contract will make him an easy trade before the contract expires, which seems to be what he is after. Trouba, ranked number 10 in his draft year, and still seen as a rising star by many, should have no problem getting a much higher contract after this one – should he continue to perform at or above current levels. For now, this is a large bargain for the Jets.

The Verdict:

monahanverdict

How we run the analysis:

Although the Money Puck calculator is capable of using virtually any statistic or data point to evaluate performance like any user we have our favourites which we use in all of our analyses. Furthermore, it’s not really fair to change these from analysis to analysis so we stick with the following assumptions for all of our posts:

– The performance metrics we consider are:

o Goals (40%) and Assists (60%) when the players are out at Even Strength or on the Power Play.
o Team Goals Against (100%) when the player is on the ice killing penalties.

– The salary cap starts this season at $73 million and increases 5%/year for future years (obviously this is up for debate but it basically reflects flat revenue growth and the assumption the NHLPA uses its escalator clause).

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Trouba Signs with Jets – A Bargain for the Jets

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