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Summer Signing Series – Schenn

As the summer free agency period comes to a close MPS is taking this opportunity to review the biggest signings of the summer from a purely financial perspective. To be fair to all the teams and players we’ll be looking at we’ll be using the same set of base assumptions throughout the series. Principally these assumptions are:

– The performance metrics we want to pay for are:

o Goals (40%) and Assists (60%) when the players are out at Even Strength or on the Power Play.
o Team Goals Against (100%) when the player is on the ice killing penalties.

– The salary cap starts this season at $73 million and increases 5%/year for future years (obviously this is up for debate but it basically reflects flat revenue growth and the assumption the NHLPA uses its escalator clause).

Signing #12 – Brayden Schenn

Another successful avoidance of arbitration was completed when the Philadelphia Flyers re-signed Brayden Schenn.

The Details

On July 25th, 2016, Brayden Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a 4 year, $20.5M contract (AAV of $5.125M). In 2015-2016 Schenn set careers highs in both his goals (26) and assists (33).

Breaking it Down

As explained in our earlier blog, point totals are fine but valuation needs to be done using rates (if this doesn’t make sense to you please check out that other post because the rest of this article/series takes it for granted) so let’s take a look at Schenn’s rates:

EVEN STRENGTH Last 3 Years Last Season
Goals/60 Min 0.67 0.77
Assists/60 Min 0.93 1.10
POWER PLAY Last 3 Years Last Season
Goals/60 Min 1.65 1.95
Assists/60 Min 2.38 2.15
PENALTY KILL Last 3 Years Last Season
Team Goals Against/60 Min 0.00 0.00

  

As described in the Details, Schenn’s last year was his best performance year in terms of offensive stats and this is clear with every one of his numbers taking a significant jump. Compared to the other elite forwards we have analyzed in this series, he would be right on their heels (or better) in most of these categories.

Ice Time

The other key factor to determining a player’s worth is how much ice time they get (again if you haven’t read this article yet you may want to do that so you can see the logic behind this). In Schenn’s case he has played the following:

ICE TIME Last 3 Years Last Season
Even Strength 12.87 12.68
Power Play 2.88 3.57
Penalty Kill 0.08 0.00

Relative to his production, Schenn’s ice time is quite a bit lower than the other forwards we’ve looked at in this series (Series Average ES TOI for last year is around 14.4).

The Forecast

We’ll start by using Schenn’s 3 year average rates. This is our typical default and tends to do a pretty good job of setting a baseline value for the player.

SChenn1
The result here isn’t great as it shows an overpay of almost $1 million/year. The good news is that since Schenn’s performance has increased last year, it’s very likely that using is last 3 years’ performance is a conservative forecast and a more realistic forecast might be to use his last season’s numbers. Let’s take another look using last year’s performance instead.

SChenn2

The output is still a little below the actual contract, but he’s now less than $250,000 /year overpaid. This may still be a conservative forecast though if the Flyers expect him to continue scoring at these rates it’s also very likely he’ll start getting more ice time. Let’s do one more forecast anticipating last year’s rates and increasing Schenn’s ice time.

SChenn3

This is probably where the Flyers are coming from on this contract. A young player that stepped up last year and is expected to continue that strong play over the next four years while adding additional ice time. In addition, to being reasonably fair to Schenn the contract also shows a little upside to the team if he does live up to those expectations.

Verdict

Verdict Forsberg

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Summer Signing Series – Schenn

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