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Gaudreau Signs with Flames- A Slight Bargain

Contract Details:

After much speculation and anticipation, Flames sign Gaudreau for another 6 years. This works out to an AAV of $6.75M. In the 2015-16 regular season, Gaudreau scored 30 goals, and had 48 assists. After running his stats through the MoneyPuck salary calculator, this deal looks like a small win for the Flames.

Analysis at first glance:

We have analyzed this contract by using Gaudreaus last year’s performance as a baseline forecast for the entire 6 years of this contract (i.e. we assumed that Gaudreau simply plays exactly the same way and exactly the same minutes as he has for the past year). Below shows a screenshot from the salary calculator using this performance forecast (for more details on this check out our first blog post detailing our methodology).

Gaudreau

This result of this forecast is a salary amount that is a little higher than what Gaudreau ultimately signed for. That said, this forecast is not guaranteed to come true. It’s possible that Gaudreau had an unusually successful year last year and that his performance will slump a little in the next few years. However, he is only 21 years old so it’s also possible that Gaudreau will continue to get better and he may do much better than what’s shown in that forecast. So all this considered this deal has a little downside risk for the Flames but also a reasonable chance at upside so we deem this contract to be a small bargain for Calgary.

The Verdict:

Gaudreau verdict

How we run the analysis:

Although the Money Puck calculator is capable of using virtually any statistic or data point to evaluate performance like any user we have our favourites which we use in all of our analyses. Furthermore, it’s not really fair to change these from analysis to analysis so we stick with the following assumptions for all of our posts:

– The performance metrics we consider are:

o Goals (40%) and Assists (60%) when the players are out at Even Strength or on the Power Play.
o Team Goals Against (100%) when the player is on the ice killing penalties.

– The salary cap starts this season at $73 million and increases 5%/year for future years (obviously this is up for debate but it basically reflects flat revenue growth and the assumption the NHLPA uses its escalator clause).

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Gaudreau Signs with Flames – A Slight Bargain for the Flames

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